Longer notice periods for regulatory change can limit volume losses and keep postal corridors open, UPU analysis shows
Policy decisions are reshaping the global postal network, and how those decisions are designed can determine whether corridors survive. That was the key message from UPU Lead Economist José Anson, who presented an update on postal sector trends and drivers for 2026 during the plenary session of the organization’s Postal Operations Council (POC).Analyzing postal volumes between August 2025 and July 2026 alongside macroeconomic trends, Anson showed how three major shocks disrupted international mail flows. He also explained why the impact of policy-driven shocks, unlike geopolitical ones, can be softened with the right lead time and coordination.
Measuring by medians
According to the analysis, averages are no longer an accurate way to gauge the global health of the postal sector. While aggregate international tonnage rose slightly, by 1.4%, between August 2025 and July 2026, median figures tell a very different story.
Anson explained that this gap signals that a handful of disproportionately large corridors are propping up global aggregate figures. A closer look revealed that 83% of countries lost international tonnage during the period, while median country-pair tonnage dropped by 10%.
Shocks create immediate impact
The sector faced three major shocks during this period – one geopolitical and two policy-related. All three had an immediate effect on volumes, though the degree of corridor disruption varied.
Following the outbreak of conflict in West Asia in March 2026, aggregate outbound tonnage dropped 43.5% and aggregate inbound traffic fell 47.8%, while the median sender corridor shrank 51.4% in the month of the shock. Some 280 sender corridors went dark that same month. The sharp decline stemmed from logistical constraints in the immediate wake of the crisis, including reduced air capacity through the region, transit routing issues and rising insurance costs. Corridors began to reopen within three to six months as air capacity returned.
In August 2025, the United States eliminated de minimis exemptions and began applying origin-specific duties on goods arriving in the mail stream. Volumes dropped 70% in the shock month, and corridors closed rapidly, with more than 40 origins disappearing after the new rules took effect. One year later, 30 of those corridors have reopened.
A second policy shift came from the European Union, which in July 2026 began applying a standard duty of 3 EUR per item on inbound goods. Aggregate tonnage fell 31% in the month of the shock, but corridors remained unchanged.
The contrast highlights a key lesson: an operator’s capacity to comply determines whether it stays in a corridor. And once a corridor closes, re-entry is far from frictionless.
Policy design can dampen effects
At stake is the universality of the network. As corridors disappear, so does access to an affordable, efficient and truly global service – one that billions of people and countless micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises depend on to participate in e-commerce.
The good news is that, unlike geopolitical shocks, policy-related shocks can be managed, provided there is a proper notice period to ensure compliance. In the case of the US, origin-specific tariffs were introduced with just one month’s notice. The significant volume drop and lasting corridor closures that followed signaled a lack of network readiness. In the case of the EU, operators were given seven months to prepare for the new universal 3 EUR duty and entry procedures. The smaller volume drop and absence of impact on existing corridors suggest this lead time ensured partners could adapt.
“This experience following the European Union’s introduction of a 3 EUR duty shows that the design of policies is negotiable, and if you negotiate it better from one shock to another, a number of impacts could be mitigated in the future. This is where the role of the UPU and its intermediation between different governments and authorities can help negotiate the design of regulatory change and mitigate its impact,” Anson explains.
“There is a possibility to rebound, but it relies very much on what you decide here [at the UPU],” he adds.
For more information on postal trends, check out the recently released UPU State of the Postal Sector 2026 report.